[xquery-talk] Izzit Bcos I is functional?
ihe.onwuka at gmail.com
Sun Jul 5 02:40:59 PDT 2015
On Sun, Jul 5, 2015 at 3:12 AM, Ihe Onwuka <ihe.onwuka at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Thu, Jun 18, 2015 at 12:23 PM, daniela florescu <dflorescu at me.com>
>> Now contrast that with the little experiment that I was running recently:
>> here is the simplest statistical problem you can imagine.
>> You have 3 boxes and 6 balls: 3 white and 3 back. You put the balls in
>> the boxes, 2 in each. I take one ball out of one box and it is black.
>> What is the probability that the secod ball in the same box is also black
>> I asked this question to CTOs of data science companies, Phd in math, Phd
>> In CS, the head of machine learning at Google, hordes of “data scientists”.
>> Out of tens of people I asked, I got only TWO correct answers: both where
>> Phd in physics. (not the CTOs, not the head of machine learning..)
> I now remember arguing the equivalent problem with a Math PhD student on
> a long drive back from a rugby tournament while I was on study abroad. He
> got it wrong, easy for me to say, at the time I had just taken a
> probability class. This is a camouflaged version of the Monty Hall problem
> typically used to introduce Bayes Rule.
> Here it's camouflaged because what is really being asked is what is the
> (conditional) probability of selecting the box with 2 black balls (the door
> with the prize).
> A priori it is 1/3 but after you take out 1 black ball do your
> probabilities change. In Bayesian terms, have you been given information
> that should update your probabilistic beliefs? Alot of people go wrong by
> thinking that they stay the same but you have been given information that
> eliminates one of the possibilities (one of the doors without the prize).
> The next pitfall is intuiting that because you now only have 2 boxes to
> chose from then the probability is 1/2 or worse that the answer is 3/4
> because 3 of the remaining 4 possible balls are black.
> But the question is really asking for a conditional probability. What is
> the probability that the 2 black ball box was chosen given that I have
> shown you that it contains at least one black ball, so you have to divide
> by the conditioning event - the probability of drawing a black ball. This
> is usually calculated using the law of total probability but we it can be
> intuited here as being 1/2 (3 of the 6 balls in the boxes are black).
> So the answer is obtained by dividing the 1/3 (the original chance of
> selecting the box with 2 black balls) by the conditioning event 1/2 giving
> 1/6...........DOH!!! .... 2/3.
Other interesting questions.
If you repeat the experiment with the same box and pull out another black
ball what is the probability that the other unseen ball is also black
...and how many times would you need to repeat the experiment to be 99%
certain that the other ball is black.
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